2
That's The Way
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 73
Thistledown · Race 3 - Best Of Ohio Governor's Buckeye Cup Stakes · 1m 2f
#5
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-05 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-09-25 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/2025 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 04/08/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 01/09/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 25/09/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 05/11/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 24/11/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |