1
Empire's Fire
7yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 102
Thistledown · Race 5 - Best Of Ohio Honey Jay Stakes · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 1.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-11 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-14 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-05-14 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength71%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/2024 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 26/10/2024 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 25/11/2024 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 14/05/2025 | 4th | 6/5 | 94% | 40% | -0.54 |
| 14/08/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 24/11/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 15/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |