4
Fortissimo
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 94
Thistledown · Race 5 - Best Of Ohio Honey Jay Stakes · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 1.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-11 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-08-14 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength83%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2024 | 1st | 2/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 26/10/2024 | 3rd | 8/15 | 97% | 71% | -0.26 |
| 21/06/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 86% | -0.09 |
| 14/08/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 11/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 24/11/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |