6
Sadie's Ghost
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 71
Thistledown · Race 5 - Best Of Ohio Honey Jay Stakes · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-09 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength30%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10/2024 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 29/04/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 29% | -0.57 |
| 14/05/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 15/09/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |
| 09/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 25/10/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 20/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |