5
Stage Name
6yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 97
Thistledown · Race 5 - Best Of Ohio Honey Jay Stakes · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
8/11
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-11-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-14 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-10-26 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2024-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength78%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07/2024 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 16/07/2024 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 10/08/2024 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 10/09/2024 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 26/10/2024 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 58% | +0.43 |
| 14/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 25/10/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 24/11/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |