2
Mia's Go
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 91
Thistledown · Race 6 - Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength61%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 02/01/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 14/01/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 63% | -0.27 |
| 13/03/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 02/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |