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6

Unchained Spirit

3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 74

Thistledown · Race 6 - Allowance · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

97%

Place Prob

81%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Mahoning Valley 06/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 60 · 6f 116 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 60 par6/03C5OR 60C5 @ Mahoning Valley 23/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 53 · 1m Slo 116 · beat its mark23/03/2026 · OR 53 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 08/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 54 · 1m Fas 116 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 54 par8/04C5OR 54C5 @ Thistledown 20/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 64 · 5f110y 115 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 64 parC5 @ Thistledown 02/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 62 · 1m Slo 115 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 62 par2/05C5OR 62C5 @ Thistledown 20/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 63 · 1m Slo 115 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 63 parC5 @ Thistledown 23/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 65 · 6f Fas 115 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 65 par23/06C5OR 65C5 @ Thistledown 06/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 66 · 1m 115 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 66 parC5 @ Thistledown 27/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 63 · 1m Fas 115 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 63 par27/07C5OR 63projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-27Thistledown?1st1st0
2026-07-06Thistledown?5th5th0
2026-06-23Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2026-05-20Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2026-05-02Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2026-04-20Thistledown?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0320/0423/0627/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/03/20265th11/271%20%-0.51
23/03/20264th16/116%40%+0.24
08/04/20265th9/153%0%-0.53
20/04/20263rd16/116%71%+0.56
02/05/20263rd15/261%60%-0.01
20/05/20263rd9/153%50%-0.03
23/06/20263rd16/116%67%+0.51
06/07/20265th16/116%20%+0.04
27/07/20261st9/153%100%+0.47