2
Brewing
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 89
Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength21%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 22/10/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 17/11/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 25/02/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 16/03/2026 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 01/04/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 09/04/2026 | 4th | 6/5 | 94% | 0% | -0.94 |
| 11/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |