5
Florida Gator
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 82
Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength10%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 19/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 06/04/2026 | 4th | 4/5 | 96% | 40% | -0.56 |
| 27/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 05/05/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 21/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 27/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |