Little Vaquero
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 86
Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
37%
Place Prob
38%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-19 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-11-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 16/07/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 10/10/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 23/10/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 06/11/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 19/11/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 10/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 01/07/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 27/07/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 38% | -0.23 |