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Honduras Passion

5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 71

Thistledown · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Thistledown 12/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 71 · 6f 119 · below its mark12/09/2025 · OR 71 par12/09C5OR 71C5 @ Thistledown 03/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 71 · 6f 119 · beat its mark03/10/2025 · OR 71 parC8 @ Oaklawn Park 14/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 71 · 6f Fas 121 · below its mark14/12/2025 · OR 71 par14/12C8OR 71C8 @ Oaklawn Park 01/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 78 · 6f 114 · below its mark01/01/2026 · OR 78 parC8 @ Oaklawn Park 21/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 67 · 6f 122 · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 67 par21/02C8OR 67C8 @ Oaklawn Park 27/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 67 · 6f 122 · below its mark27/03/2026 · OR 67 parC8 @ Oaklawn Park 12/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 66 · 6f 122 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 66 par12/04C8OR 66C5 @ Thistledown 11/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 68 · 6f 119 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 68 parC5 @ Thistledown 23/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 68 · 6f Fas 119 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 68 par23/06C5OR 68projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-23Thistledown?2nd2nd0
2026-05-11Thistledown?2nd2nd0
2026-04-12Oaklawn Park?8th11th−3
2026-03-27Oaklawn Park?4th7th−3
2026-02-21Oaklawn Park?3rd6th−3
2026-01-01Oaklawn Park?6th9th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/091/0112/0423/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/09/20254th7/163%25%-0.38
03/10/20253rd3/184%60%-0.24
14/12/20254th10/382%67%-0.16
01/01/20266th20/10%55%+0.55
21/02/20263rd8/158%80%+0.22
27/03/20264th12/137%70%+0.33
12/04/20268th25/10%30%+0.30
11/05/20262nd12/137%86%+0.49
23/06/20262nd11/271%83%+0.12