5
Lady Midshipman
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 68
Thistledown · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-27 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength15%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 05/03/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 17/03/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 27/03/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 22/04/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |