3
Roughnthepassenger
3yo Filly · 8-5 · OR 87
Thistledown · Race 8 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
99%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |