8
Balki Bartokomous
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 63
Thistledown · Race 9 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
71%
Place Prob
45%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength24%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 03/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 26/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 30/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |