7
My Valentino
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 65
Thistledown · Race 9 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength72%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-13 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength63%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 04/08/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 28/08/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 15/09/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 02/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 13/01/2026 | 6th | 6/5 | 94% | 38% | -0.56 |
| 12/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 03/03/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |