6
Ol' Nelson
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 57
Thistledown · Race 9 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-03 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 8
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength13%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 16/12/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 13/01/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/02/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 44% | -0.32 |
| 23/02/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 11/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |