River Bye
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 63
Thistledown · Race 9 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2025-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 88% | -0.05 |
| 21/06/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 11/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 03/09/2025 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 18/09/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 09/10/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 15/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |