5
Smoocher
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 53
Thistledown · Race 9 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength54%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 13/08/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 11/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 10/10/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 25/10/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 07/11/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 11/12/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 15/01/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |