3
Take Dictation
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 44
Thistledown · Race 9 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-17 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength59%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/11/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 12/02/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 03/03/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 17/03/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 26/03/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 10/04/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 27/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 29/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |