2
Willie T
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 49
Thistledown · Race 9 - Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-03 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 10/10/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 03/11/2025 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 18/11/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 03/02/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 56% | -0.31 |
| 23/02/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 09/03/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |
| 27/03/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 05/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |