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3

Nicolson Landing

4yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 50

Turffontein · Tammy Dawson Maiden Plate (F & M) · 6f 211y

#7

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Remains a maiden after 9 Flat runs. 4/1, seventh of 12 in maiden at this course (7.2f, good) 30 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength8%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Turffontein 30/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 13230/12C8C8 @ Vaal 24/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 132C8 @ Vaal 10/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 13210/02C8C8 @ Turffontein 26/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 132C8 @ Turffontein 21/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 13221/03C8C8 @ Turffontein 09/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 132C8 @ Turffontein 10/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 13210/05C8C8 @ Turffontein 14/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 132C8 @ Turffontein 09/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 1329/07C8projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-09Turffontein?7th7th0
2026-06-14Turffontein?2nd2nd0
2026-05-10Turffontein?6th6th0
2026-04-09Turffontein?3rd3rd0
2026-03-21Turffontein?3rd3rd0
2026-02-26Turffontein?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/1226/0210/059/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength46%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/12/20255th9/153%43%-0.10
24/01/20268th40/10%46%+0.46
10/02/20266th25/10%17%+0.17
26/02/20262nd14/126%86%+0.59
21/03/20263rd11/271%50%-0.21
09/04/20263rd5/287%50%-0.37
10/05/20266th6/168%29%-0.40
14/06/20262nd13/266%88%+0.22
09/07/20267th9/276%45%-0.31