7
Hotarubi
6yo Gelding · 7-12 · OR 72
Turffontein · Dianne Stenger Pinnacle Stakes · 1m 209y
#6
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength75%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Turffontein | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Turffontein | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Turffontein | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Turffontein | ? | 9th | 4th | +4 |
| 2026-05-10 | Turffontein | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Turffontein | ? | 7th | 3rd | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 09/04/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 28/04/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 10/05/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 07/06/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 11/07/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |