4
Royal Invitation
7yo Mare · 7-12 · OR 77
Turffontein · Dianne Stenger Pinnacle Stakes · 1m 209y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength58%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Turffontein | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Vaal | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Greyville | ? | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-04-28 | Turffontein | ? | 9th | 5th | +4 |
| 2026-04-05 | Scottsville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Turffontein | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength31%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/11/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 63% | -0.20 |
| 16/12/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 24/01/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 14/03/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 05/04/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 28/04/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 11% | -0.36 |
| 30/05/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 09/07/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |