5
Ariovistus
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 81
Turffontein · Avory Shlain Wishes The Ladies Happy Women's Day Mr 95 Handicap · 7f 210y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Turffontein | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Turffontein | ? | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Turffontein | ? | 6th | 7th | −0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Turffontein | ? | 6th | 7th | −0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Vaal | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Turffontein | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength89%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 44% | +0.02 |
| 31/01/2026 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/03/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 09/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 04/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 29% | -0.57 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 38% | -0.05 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |