9
Gran Canaria
5yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 78
Turffontein · Avory Shlain Wishes The Ladies Happy Women's Day Mr 95 Handicap · 7f 210y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength56%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Turffontein | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Vaal | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Turffontein | ? | 6th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-02-14 | Durbanville | 4 | 6th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-12-06 | Kenilworth | 4 | 2nd | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-10-29 | Durbanville | 4 | 6th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength83%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 31/05/2025 | 14th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 29/07/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 44% | -0.21 |
| 29/10/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 06/12/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 14/02/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 44% | -0.42 |
| 07/05/2026 | 6th | 13/8 | 91% | 38% | -0.54 |
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |