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Master Christmas

6yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 90

Turffontein · Avory Shlain Wishes The Ladies Happy Women's Day Mr 95 Handicap · 7f 210y

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Creditable second of 6 in handicap (5/1) at this course (7f, good) 34 days ago. Looks competitive on form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Vaal 02/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 1402/09C6C5 @ Turffontein 20/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Vaal 30/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR - · 6f211y Sft 129 · HIGHER CLASS30/09C5C5 @ Vaal 20/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 6f211y GS 128 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Vaal 11/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 7f101y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS11/12C5C0 @ Vaal 20/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 21 · OR - · 7f73y Gd 122C5 @ Vaal 05/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS5/03C5C5 @ Vaal 18/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Turffontein 05/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS5/07C5projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-05Turffontein?2nd2nd+0
2026-06-18Vaal?3rd2nd+1
2026-03-05Vaal?8th7th+1
2025-12-20Vaal?10th10th0
2025-12-11Vaal?2nd1st+1
2025-11-20Vaal?6th6th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0920/115/035/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/09/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
20/09/20255th3/184%50%-0.34
30/09/20253rd11/271%85%+0.14
20/11/20256th15/261%17%-0.44
11/12/20252nd13/266%86%+0.20
20/12/202510th17/255%55%-0.00
05/03/20268th12/137%22%-0.15
18/06/20263rd33/10%86%+0.86
05/07/20262nd5/174%80%+0.06