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8

Can't Catch Me

7yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 43

Turffontein · Next Turffontein Racemeeting Sunday 16 August Mr 66 Handicap · 6f 211y

#3

Rank

Odds

18/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Latest win at Vaal in July. Respectable sixth of 13 in handicap at Vaal (7.2f, good, 20/1) 9 days ago. Merits consideration.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Vaal 10/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS10/02C7C7 @ Turffontein 12/03/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR - · 7f46y Sft 125 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Turffontein 19/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS19/03C7C7 @ Turffontein 12/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Turffontein 07/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 7f46y GS 115 · HIGHER CLASS7/05C7C7 @ Vaal 21/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Vaal 02/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR - · 7f101y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS2/07C7C7 @ Turffontein 16/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 115 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Vaal 30/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 116 · HIGHER CLASS30/07C7projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-30Vaal?6th5th+1
2026-07-16Turffontein?2nd1st+1
2026-07-02Vaal?1st1st+0
2026-05-21Vaal?8th8th+0
2026-05-07Turffontein?7th6th+1
2026-04-12Turffontein?7th7th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0212/042/0730/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength91%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/02/20264th4/179%73%-0.06
12/03/202614th15/261%0%-0.61
19/03/20268th14/126%22%-0.04
12/04/20267th25/10%33%+0.33
07/05/20267th33/10%25%+0.25
21/05/20268th28/10%53%+0.53
02/07/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
16/07/20262nd15/261%89%+0.28
30/07/20266th18/15%58%+0.53