Felicity Smoak
4yo Filly · 10-8 · OR 99
Wexford · Wexford Fillies Maiden Hurdle · 2m 190y
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Cork | BHA96 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-07 | Navan | BHA58 | 4th | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Leopardstown | BHA58 | 6th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-12-27 | Limerick | ? | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2025-11-13 | Punchestown | BHA103 | 6th | 9th | −2 |
| 2025-10-12 | Cork | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/2025 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 11/08/2025 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 42% | -0.32 |
| 26/09/2025 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 12/10/2025 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 13/11/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 27/12/2025 | 14th | 66/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 72% | +0.67 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 77% | +0.19 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 87% | +0.50 |