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11

Staywitherjohnny

4yo Filly · 10-8

Wexford · Wexford Fillies Maiden Hurdle · 2m 190y

#3

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Modest maiden on the Flat. A watching brief is advised on hurdle debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength88%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +2.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 23/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR - · 1m Hvy 12923/04C8C8 @ Gowran Park 21/05/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 1m Goo 129C8 @ Galway 02/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR - · 1m73y Goo 1292/08C8BHA62 @ Galway 09/09/2025 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR 62 · 1m98y Sft 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/09/2025 · OR 62 parBHA62 @ Killarney 06/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 62 · 1m30y Sft 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/10/2025 · OR 62 par6/1062OR 62BHA58 @ Leopardstown 15/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 58 · 1m1f Yie 147 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 58 parBHA57 @ Gowran Park 05/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 57 · 1m Goo 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 57 par5/0557OR 57BHA56 @ Gowran Park 20/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 56 · 1m Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 56 parBHA54 @ Leopardstown 11/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 17 · OR 54 · 1m1f Sft 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 54 par11/0654OR 54projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-11LeopardstownBHA545th2nd+3
2026-05-20Gowran ParkBHA569th6th+2
2026-05-05Gowran ParkBHA573rd0th+2
2026-04-15LeopardstownBHA586th3rd+2
2025-10-06KillarneyBHA629th7th+2
2025-09-09GalwayBHA6215th13th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/049/095/0511/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength43%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/04/20254th80/10%80%+0.80
21/05/20258th40/10%22%+0.22
02/08/20257th8/158%60%+0.02
09/09/202515th16/116%0%-0.16
06/10/20259th40/10%20%+0.20
15/04/20266th12/137%29%-0.08
05/05/20263rd25/10%86%+0.86
20/05/20269th6/168%47%-0.22
11/06/20265th14/126%75%+0.49