5
Marian Avenue
6yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 99
Wexford · Shamrock Farm Enterprises Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 50y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | Limerick | BHA94 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Punchestown | BHA89 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Clonmel | BHA90 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-17 | Wexford | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Clonmel | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-02-10 | Limerick | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength92%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 6th | 125/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 26/02/2026 | 11th | 150/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 17/03/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 14/04/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 13/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 94% | +0.18 |
| 28/05/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |