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3

Morell River

6yo Mare · 11-9 · OR 102

Wexford · Shamrock Farm Enterprises Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 50y

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made it 2-2 over C&D with a smooth-travelling success on her return from 6 months off in May. Ran at least as well in defeat when second of 13 at Punchestown (3m, good) in June but bit below-par at Downpatrick last time. Must be considered returning to this venue.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Punchestown 16/10/2024 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 2m59y Goo 15016/10C?C8 @ Gowran Park 09/11/2024 · Pos 11th of 17 · OR - · 2m Yie 154BHA91 @ Downpatrick 19/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 91 · 2m1f165y Yie 159 · below its mark19/09/2025 · OR 91 par19/0991OR 91BHA91 @ Downpatrick 10/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 91 · 2m5f180y Yie 159 · below its mark10/10/2025 · OR 91 parBHA90 @ Wexford 26/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 90 · 2m4f Yie 160 · beat its mark26/10/2025 · OR 90 par26/1090OR 90BHA97 @ Gowran Park 08/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 19 · OR 97 · 2m3f180y Hvy 165 · below its mark08/11/2025 · OR 97 parBHA96 @ Wexford 16/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 96 · 2m4f Goo 152 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 96 par16/0596OR 96BHA102 @ Punchestown 07/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 102 · 2m7f116y Goo 148 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 102 parBHA103 @ Downpatrick 14/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 103 · 2m5f185y Gd 159 · below its mark14/07/2026 · OR 103 par14/07103OR 103projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-14DownpatrickBHA1038th8th0
2026-06-07PunchestownBHA1022nd2nd0
2026-05-16WexfordBHA961st1st0
2025-11-08Gowran ParkBHA978th8th0
2025-10-26WexfordBHA901st1st0
2025-10-10DownpatrickBHA915th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/1010/1016/0514/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength67%

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/10/20246th66/10%17%+0.17
09/11/202411th125/10%38%+0.38
19/09/20254th22/10%79%+0.79
10/10/20255th15/261%60%-0.01
26/10/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
08/11/20258th17/255%61%+0.06
16/05/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
07/06/20262nd10/382%92%+0.09
14/07/20268th4/179%42%-0.37