6
Ocean Murphy
4yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 98
Wexford · Shamrock Farm Enterprises Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 50y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
89%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | BHA92 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Limerick | BHA94 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Downpatrick | BHA95 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Gowran Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Cork | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-04 | Fairyhouse | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 23/11/2025 | 5th | 150/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 14/02/2026 | 7th | 125/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 29/03/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 02/07/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 53% | +0.27 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |