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Nadia's Boy

6yo Gelding · 11-12

Wexford · Wexford Racecourse Park Run Beginners Chase · 2m 3f 20y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

94%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful on sole outing in points and likewise made a winning start in bumper and Listowel maiden hurdle. Was unable to repeat that trend on chasing debut but shaped encouragingly when 1¾ lengths third of 6 to Soir De Garde in 2m maiden at this course in June. Step up in trip should suit.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Kilbeggan 01/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 2m Goo 1681/06C?C8 @ Listowel 26/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 2m2f Goo 16626/09C8C8 @ Punchestown 30/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 2m90y Yie 16630/04C8C0 @ Wexford 30/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 2m Goo 16630/06C?projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-30Wexford?3rd3rd0
2026-04-30Punchestown?10th10th0
2025-09-26Listowel?1st1st0
2025-06-01Kilbeggan?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0626/0930/0430/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength29%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/06/20251st8/1397%100%+0.03
26/09/20251st6/594%100%+0.06
30/04/202610th6/168%10%-0.58
30/06/20263rd11/486%60%-0.26