4
Scalpnagoon
6yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 114
Wexford · Wexford Racecourse Park Run Beginners Chase · 2m 3f 20y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C11.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Kilbeggan | BHA116 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Wexford | BHA118 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Roscommon | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Ballinrobe | BHA120 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Down Royal | BHA124 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Cork | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength86%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/2025 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/11/2025 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 10% | -0.27 |
| 05/02/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 05/04/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 04/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 08/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 30/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |