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3

Beggars Rock

7yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 108

Wexford · Wexfordraces.ie Handicap Chase · 2m 3f 20y

#3

Rank

Odds

28/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won handicap hurdle and chase Declan Queally. Didn't really fire on either start over hurdles this season but has been given a chance by the handicapper now back over fences. Blinkers replace visor and drop in trip unlikely to be an issue, with both previous wins having come around 2½m.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Thurles 06/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 2m4f176y Goo 1666/03C?BHA112 @ Tramore 14/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 112 · 2m5f180y Yie 166 · below its mark14/04/2025 · OR 112 parBHA112 @ Kilbeggan 16/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 112 · 2m4f90y Goo 166 · beat its mark16/05/2025 · OR 112 par16/05112OR 112BHA116 @ Roscommon 09/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 116 · 3m1f24y Goo 156 · below its mark09/06/2025 · OR 116 parBHA116 @ Cork 03/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 116 · 2m4f Yie 153 · below its mark03/01/2026 · OR 116 par3/01116OR 116BHA112 @ Fairyhouse 04/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 112 · 2m5f45y Yie 152 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 112 parBHA110 @ Down Royal 12/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 110 · 3m2f50y Goo 157 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 110 par12/04110OR 110BHA103 @ Wexford 16/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 103 · 3m Goo 160 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 103 parBHA102 @ Galway 02/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 18 · OR 102 · 3m60y Goo 148 · below its mark02/08/2026 · OR 102 par2/08102OR 102projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-02GalwayBHA10210th10th0
2026-05-16WexfordBHA1036th6th0
2026-04-12Down RoyalBHA1103rd3rd0
2026-04-04FairyhouseBHA1126th6th0
2026-01-14Fairyhouse?0
2026-01-03CorkBHA1163rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/039/0612/042/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength33%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/03/20253rd11/271%80%+0.09
14/04/20252nd13/266%92%+0.26
16/05/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
09/06/20257th5/174%57%-0.17
03/01/20263rd11/486%60%-0.26
04/04/20266th20/10%69%+0.69
12/04/20263rd11/271%78%+0.07
16/05/20266th12/137%58%+0.21
02/08/202610th28/10%47%+0.47