2
Freddie Robdal
9yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 109
Wexford · Wexfordraces.ie Handicap Chase · 2m 3f 20y
#4
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Downpatrick | BHA110 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Thurles | BHA112 | 0 | ||
| 2025-12-26 | Leopardstown | ? | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Thurles | BHA93 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Thurles | BHA93 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Downpatrick | BHA95 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength27%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/01/2025 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 25/04/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 01/06/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 11/07/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 10/08/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 44% | -0.21 |
| 20/11/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 94% | +0.57 |
| 27/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/5 | 88% | 92% | +0.03 |
| 26/12/2025 | 17th | 25/1 | 0% | 6% | +0.06 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |