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7yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 110
Wexford · Wexfordraces.ie Handicap Chase · 2m 3f 20y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
23%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | BHA110 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Wexford | BHA113 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Downpatrick | BHA114 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Navan | BHA118 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Punchestown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Wexford | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength55%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 08/09/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 03/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 26/10/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 13/11/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 38% | -0.44 |
| 14/12/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 45% | -0.20 |
| 13/06/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 54% | -0.15 |
| 30/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 28/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 89% | +0.47 |