7
Temptationinmilan
10yo Gelding · 10-10 · OR 94
Wexford · Wexfordraces.ie Handicap Chase · 2m 3f 20y
#9
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 9.5 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C10.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Killarney | BHA98 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-21 | Limerick | BHA102 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Punchestown | BHA106 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Cork | BHA106 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-18 | Thurles | BHA106 | 0 | ||
| 2025-02-27 | Clonmel | BHA98 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2024 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 77% | +0.72 |
| 07/08/2024 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 06/10/2024 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 25/10/2024 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 64% | +0.12 |
| 15/12/2024 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 27/02/2025 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 06/04/2026 | 5th | 100/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 01/05/2026 | 12th | 250/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 21/05/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |