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6

Ceroc

8yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 108

Wexford · Poolcourt Engineering Handicap Chase · 3m 1f

#2

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

18%

Rank

#2

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Moody sort who snapped a long losing run when winning 5-runner handicap at this course 17 days ago by 11 lengths from Dorans Law. Will need to defy a 6 lb rise in a strong race if he's to follow up, though, and his career has been blighted by inconsistency.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA110 @ Limerick 22/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 110 · 3m1f110y Goo 156 · below its mark22/05/2025 · OR 110 par22/05110OR 110BHA110 @ Wexford 23/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 110 · 3m1f110y Gd 156 · below its mark23/07/2025 · OR 110 parBHA110 @ Clonmel 23/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 110 · 2m4f219y Goo 163 · below its mark23/10/2025 · OR 110 par23/10110OR 110C8 @ Naas 09/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 110 · 2m4f40y Sft 159 · below its mark09/11/2025 · OR 110 parBHA109 @ Navan 14/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 109 · 3m Sft 155 · below its mark14/12/2025 · OR 109 par14/12109OR 109BHA107 @ Leopardstown 02/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 107 · 3m4f61y Yie 158 · below its mark02/03/2026 · OR 107 parBHA109 @ Wexford 10/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 109 · 2m4f Goo 165 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 109 par10/04109OR 109BHA102 @ Wexford 16/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 102 · 3m1f100y Goo 159 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 102 parBHA102 @ Wexford 22/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 102 · 3m155y Gd 150 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 102 par22/07102OR 102projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-22WexfordBHA1021st1st0
2026-05-30ListowelBHA1050
2026-05-16WexfordBHA1022nd2nd0
2026-04-10WexfordBHA1096th6th0
2026-03-26Clonmel?0
2026-03-02LeopardstownBHA1077th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/059/1110/0422/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/05/20252nd7/282%80%-0.02
23/07/20253rd5/174%80%+0.06
23/10/20252nd13/266%86%+0.20
09/11/20255th11/271%50%-0.21
14/12/20255th17/255%64%+0.08
02/03/20267th16/116%50%+0.34
10/04/20266th20/10%62%+0.62
16/05/20262nd5/174%90%+0.16
22/07/20261st9/488%100%+0.12