7
Duty Bound
7yo Gelding · 10-11 · OR 107
Wexford · Poolcourt Engineering Handicap Chase · 3m 1f
#7
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C10.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Wexford | BHA108 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Killarney | BHA114 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-30 | Navan | BHA67 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Wexford | BHA109 | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-04 | Gowran Park | BHA115 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-25 | Listowel | BHA115 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength42%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 31/05/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 03/07/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 17/07/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 23/08/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 64% | +0.06 |
| 25/09/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 04/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 30/03/2026 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 30/06/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 64% | +0.22 |