2
Rockonliam
6yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 118
Wexford · Poolcourt Engineering Handicap Chase · 3m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
1/1
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
78%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Wexford | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Listowel | BHA102 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-28 | Leopardstown | BHA101 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Wexford | BHA102 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Gowran Park | BHA103 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-05-12 | Killarney | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2025 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 64% | -0.28 |
| 27/03/2025 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 88% | -0.05 |
| 12/05/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 03/10/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |
| 27/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 85% | +0.06 |
| 28/12/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.26 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |