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Sphagnum

9yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 122

Wexford · Poolcourt Engineering Handicap Chase · 3m 1f

#5

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner who is a far better chaser than hurdler but was sparked back to life by first-time blinkers when second of 16 at Sligo (3¼m, soft) in June. Below form in similar event there last time. Belatedly returns to this sphere from 2 lb below his last winning mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C10.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA122 @ Kilbeggan 23/08/2024 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 122 · 3m1f100y Goo 161 · below its mark23/08/2024 · OR 122 par23/08122OR 122BHA106 @ Roscommon 30/09/2024 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 106 · 3m25y Sft 160 · below its mark30/09/2024 · OR 106 par1 @ Cork 03/11/2024 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 125 · 3m4f Gd 160 · beat its mark03/11/2024 · OR 125 par3/111OR 125BHA106 @ Ballinrobe 11/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 106 · 3m1f215y Gd 152 · below its mark11/08/2025 · OR 106 parBHA105 @ Sligo 20/08/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 105 · 3m1f118y Gd 161 · below its mark20/08/2025 · OR 105 par20/08105OR 105BHA103 @ Thurles 20/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 103 · 2m4f Yie 159 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 103 parBHA100 @ Down Royal 12/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 19 · OR 100 · 3m Goo 168 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 100 par12/04100OR 100BHA98 @ Sligo 09/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 98 · 3m1f170y Yie 165 · below its mark09/06/2026 · OR 98 parBHA100 @ Sligo 12/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 100 · 3m1f121y Gd 156 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 100 par12/07100OR 100projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-12SligoBHA1007th7th0
2026-06-09SligoBHA982nd2nd0
2026-04-12Down RoyalBHA10011th11th0
2025-11-20ThurlesBHA1038th8th0
2025-08-20SligoBHA10510th10th0
2025-08-11BallinrobeBHA1068th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0811/0812/0412/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/08/20242nd13/266%92%+0.27
30/09/20248th4/179%36%-0.43
03/11/20241st8/158%100%+0.42
11/08/20258th7/163%30%-0.33
20/08/202510th11/271%18%-0.53
20/11/20258th18/15%36%+0.31
12/04/202611th33/10%44%+0.44
09/06/20262nd25/10%93%+0.93
12/07/20267th15/261%57%-0.03