5
Teenage Kiss
5yo Mare · 10-13 · OR 109
Wexford · Poolcourt Engineering Handicap Chase · 3m 1f
#4
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Wexford | BHA105 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Wexford | BHA98 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Wexford | BHA99 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Naas | BHA98 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Naas | BHA97 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Thurles | BHA98 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength86%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 08/08/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 29/08/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 54% | -0.07 |
| 27/11/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 58% | +0.53 |
| 09/01/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 90% | +0.43 |
| 04/03/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 70% | +0.09 |
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 69% | +0.17 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |