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6

Ballybrittas

7yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 104

Wexford · BOYLE Sports Handicap Chase · 1m 7f 120y

#3

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improved to win 7-runner handicap at this course (15f, good to firm) 17 days ago by 2¼ lengths from reopposing Lady Doyanne, jumping better than is sometimes the case. Should remain very competitive off 6 lb higher if keeping the errors down again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Leopardstown 29/12/2024 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 109 · 2m4f Goo 147 · below its mark29/12/2024 · OR 109 par29/12C8OR 109C0 @ Thurles 06/03/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 2m4f176y Goo 166C0 @ Clonmel 27/03/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 2m86y Goo 16627/03C?BHA112 @ Kilbeggan 16/05/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 112 · 2m4f90y Goo 166 · below its mark16/05/2025 · OR 112 parBHA110 @ Roscommon 09/06/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 110 · 2m5f150y Goo 166 · below its mark09/06/2025 · OR 110 par9/06110OR 110C8 @ Wexford 10/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 106 · 2m3f100y Goo 147 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 106 parBHA102 @ Kilbeggan 24/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 102 · 2m3f210y Goo 159 · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 102 par24/04102OR 102BHA100 @ Killarney 11/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 100 · 2m4f100y Goo 156 · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 100 parBHA98 @ Wexford 22/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 98 · 1m7f110y Gd 147 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 98 par22/0798OR 98projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-22WexfordBHA981st1st0
2026-05-11KillarneyBHA1005th5th0
2026-04-24KilbegganBHA1024th4th0
2026-04-10Wexford?7th7th0
2025-06-09RoscommonBHA11010th10th0
2025-05-16KilbegganBHA1129th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/1216/0524/0422/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/12/20246th16/116%55%+0.39
06/03/20252nd17/255%90%+0.35
27/03/20252nd6/594%92%-0.01
16/05/20259th6/168%33%-0.35
09/06/202510th14/126%31%+0.04
10/04/20267th25/10%25%+0.25
24/04/20264th25/10%77%+0.77
11/05/20265th12/137%69%+0.32
22/07/20261st9/276%100%+0.24