2
Almasty's Lust
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 64
Woodbine · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-11-13 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength62%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 16/10/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 23/10/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 45% | -0.07 |
| 13/11/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 22/11/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 38% | -0.28 |
| 12/12/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |