6
Dixie Doll
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 68
Woodbine · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength40%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-10-31 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-10-10 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength78%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 31/10/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 15/11/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |