3
Serenading Amaya
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 66
Woodbine · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength17%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 07/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 28/11/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 17% | -0.68 |
| 11/12/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 22/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 05/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 30/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |