4
Take Chances
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 65
Woodbine · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
56%
Place Prob
42%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength96%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 31/08/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 20/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 10/10/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 07/11/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 14% | -0.49 |
| 28/11/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 11/12/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 05/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |