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Dancin In Da'nile

7yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 114

Woodbine · Race 10 - Niagara Stakes · 1m 3f

#4

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength80%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.7
Today:
Class gap: +1.9
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Fair Grounds 22/03/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 116 · 1m1f Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/03/2025 · OR 116 par22/03C?OR 116C0 @ Woodbine 31/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 115 · 1m110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/05/2025 · OR 115 parC1 @ Woodbine 28/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 113 · 1m1f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/06/2025 · OR 113 par28/06C1OR 113C5 @ Woodbine 02/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 109 · 1m2f Fm 121 · below its mark02/08/2025 · OR 109 parC1 @ Woodbine 06/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 109 · 1m3f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 109 par6/09C1OR 109C0 @ Woodbine 04/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 106 · 1m4f Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 106 parC6 @ Woodbine 02/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 113 · 1m3f Gd 122 · below its mark02/11/2025 · OR 113 par2/11C6OR 113C1 @ Churchill Downs 17/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 119 · 1m4f Gd 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 119 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 13/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 118 · 1m3f Fm 118 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 118 par13/06C5OR 118projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-13Churchill Downs?3rd3rd0
2026-05-17Churchill Downs?2nd-3th+4
2025-11-02Woodbine?3rd4th−1
2025-10-04Woodbine?4th-1th+4
2025-09-06Woodbine?3rd-2th+4
2025-08-02Woodbine?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/032/082/1113/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength49%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/03/202510th50/10%18%+0.18
31/05/20254th20/10%57%+0.57
28/06/20257th25/10%14%+0.14
02/08/20252nd14/126%90%+0.64
06/09/20253rd9/276%60%-0.16
04/10/20254th25/10%67%+0.67
02/11/20253rd7/491%50%-0.41
17/05/20262nd20/10%80%+0.80
13/06/20263rd20/10%71%+0.71