5
Faber
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 107
Woodbine · Race 10 - Niagara Stakes · 1m 3f
#11
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 1st | +4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-27 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength35%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 16/08/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 09/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 28/09/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 13/12/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 44% | -0.37 |
| 27/12/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 12/02/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 21/03/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 16/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |